Scaling climate change models for the assessment of landscape systems
Symposium organised by:
Burghard C. Meyer, Leipzig University, Germany.
Gabor Mesösi, University of Szeged, Hungary.
The symposium will explore the problem of linking the climate information from regional climate change prediction models to landscape systems. The symposium will discuss the scaling problem and will give insights about the use of regional climate change models in landscape systems modelling and about the application in hazard assessment and measures development.
A key challenge for the assessment of landscape systems is that models are based on continental scale applications followed by a downscaling to the regional scale, but most of the practical (and theoretical) needs of landscape modelling occur on a micro or landscape scale. This challenge must be met by further downscaling of climate information for the assessment of landscape systems.
The scaling down of climate change scenario results of diverse regional models leads to predicted changes in precipitation, temperature, wind or extreme parameters. The changes should be scientifically linked to landscape effects, events and landscape hazards. This is a growing field of climate change research. Multiple scientific and application problems are related to the scaling because of the long time span of the prediction and the ranges of the potential changes. This is obvious when at the same time local and regional applications in landscape management, nature conservation and planning are demanding a clear problem analysis and a range of measures to react (for adaption).
Changing probabilities of storm events, mass movements, flooding, temperature extremes, periods of drought or forest fires are of high impact and of influence on landscape functioning and approaches of landscape process regulation or to an innovative land structuring to minimise the risks for the society. The scaling information is especially relevant in assessment tools and methods development, for example those used by insurance companies, agricultural consulting agencies, or in spatial and landscape planning and also in many other fields of risk prevention.
The symposium will include examples dealing with integrative modelling of climate change impacts to the local and landscape scale. The examples will show best practice in linking the different methods and scales.
Results of the symposium will be published in a special journal issue of a high ranked scientific journal including the presenters’ contributions. Results will be used for the planning of future research project activity linking the different aspects of the symposium to practice application.