Drought induced changes in land use, wind erosion risk and biological productivity based on regional climate change estimation for Hungary
The potential effects of Climate Change (CC) on landscapes and land use types are seldom broken down to the landscape scale because of the data scale of regional models of 20 km or more. Since scenario analysis of climate change impacts in the Pannonia Basin is available by downscaling regional climate model simulations for risk prevention and landscape (Mezösi et al. 2012) and spatial planning (Rannow et al. 2011), the change in landscape functions by CC is in focus of the research. In Hungary the drought problem was found as a major impact and was differentiated in the regions but not yet broken down to landscape scale of landscape functions (Blanka et al. 2013) or for the usage in nature conservation at the local scale (Mezösi et al. 2013).
The regional climate models REMO and ALADIN imply changes in drought periods for Hungary as observed in 5 drought events since the year 2000. Based on detailed analysis of past and predicted drought periods at the time steps 2020-2035 and 2035-2050 impacts on arable land use systems, biological productivity and wind erosion risks are modelled at landscape level.
The developed drought impact model combines the results of a) the physical regional CC models (including data series of past and predicted temperature, precipitation and wind speed), b) statistical analysis of arable production impacted by drought using past events as proxies for a drought typification, c) remote sensing information by NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) based on MODIS multi-temporal analysis to analyse and to verify biological productivity, d) a wind erosion risk prediction model combining soil, land use and wind speed data on the basis of fuzzy logic, and e) a water balance estimation to verify potential changes in soil water household.
The drought data and model combinations results in drought impact scenario different for potential land use changes in arable system, biological productivity and wind erosion risk.
- Blanka,V., Mezősi, G. & B.C. Meyer (2013): Projected changes in the drought hazard in Hungary due to climate change. Időjárás - Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ) 117, No 1, January-March 2013 (in print) http://www.met.hu/en/omsz/kiadvanyok/idojaras/
- Mezősi, G., Blanka, V., Meyer, B.C., Ladányi, Zs., Rakonczai, J. (2013): Effects of Climate Change on landscapes and land use types in the Kiskunság National Park (submitted to Environmental Management)
- Mezösi, G., Meyer, B.C., Loibl, W., Aubrecht, Ch., Csorba, P. & T. Bata (2012): Assessment of regional climate change impacts on Hungarian landscapes. Regional Environmental Change; available online: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-012-0326-1
- Rannow S., Loibl, W., Greiving, S., Gruehn, D. & B. C. Meyer (2010): Potential impacts of climate change in Germany - identifying regional priorities for adaptation activities in spatial planning". Landscape and Urban Planning 98, 160–171.