Using normative visions to explore the future of land use in Europe

Authors and Affiliations: 

James Paterson and Marc Metzger 

Land Use Research Group
School of Geosciences
University of Edinburgh
Drummond Street


Assessing European environmental change in the next few decades requires a method that quickly and comprehensively analyses different plausible and salient futures. In recent years, scenarios (explorative futures) have become popular in environmental assessments (e.g., MA, UK NEA); here we look at the a method of using normative visions drawn from a range of sources including published documents and stakeholder workshops. We assess their utility and application (including providing data for land use change models), discuss how several visions can be consolidated into fewer clusters and then compare them to explorative scenarios. Finally we suggest how visions can be useful for other land use studies.